10 Players’ Basketball Cards I’m Looking to Pick Up During the 2023 NBA Off-Season (and you should too)
This article was originally published on my Medium.
Disclaimers:
this article contains affiliate links. Any purchases you make through said links may net me a small commission at additional cost to you.
as always, this is not financial advice; do your own due diligence and only spend what you can afford to lose.
Introduction
Historically, the basketball card market has followed a cyclical trend: prices tend to drop during the off-season (when general interest in the NBA is lower) before rising again over the course of the next season. Whether you’re interested in flipping for a profit or adding to your personal collection, the off-season is the perfect time to pick up some cards at a discount.
Throughout this article, you’ll notice that I’ll consistently reference base Prizm PSA 10 card values to illustrate price movements. This does not mean that I recommend purchasing this exact card for each player; on the contrary, I believe base Prizms are a fairly poor “investment” due to their relative lack of rarity and high graded population. They are, however, a useful index or proxy for that player’s overall value given the popularity of Prizm as a set.
If you’re new to the world of basketball cards and would like an in-depth primer on how to get started, check out my article here first.
Without further ado, here are 10 players whose rookie cards I expect to rise in the near future.
Zion Williamson
As one of the poster boys for the covid-era basketball card boom, Zion Williamson cards have seen some of the sharpest value declines in the hobby over the last couple of years. At the peak of the market in early 2021, Zion’s base Prizm card in a PSA 10 (of which there are a staggering 22,811 in existence, according to PSA’s population report) went for a ridiculous $633.46. That same card is now worth around $70 — that’s an 89% loss.
A lot of things factored into this precipitous decline. For one, the basketball card bubble popped; prices across the hobby have dropped. Secondly, Zion has struggled with weight and health issues, sitting out the entire 2021–22 season while only playing 29 games in 2022–23. And most recently, Zion has found himself wrapped up in a wild love triangle scandal involving his baby mama and an adult film star.
All of these things have contributed to Zion’s stock crashing, but here’s the upside: Zion, when healthy, is still one of the most prodigious talents we have ever seen. In the limited number of games he’s managed to play so far in his career, he’s averaged 26 points and made an All-Star team. If Zion can put together a relatively healthy season next year and sustain a career that even marginally lives up to his hype (and yes, admittedly, that’s a big if), his card values right now might be the lowest they’ll ever be. Call me an optimist, but I’m still high on Zion.
Shop Zion Williamson rookie cards on eBay here
LaMelo Ball
If you thought Zion’s base Prizm PSA 10 value drop was wild, wait ‘till you see LaMelo’s: once sold for a staggering $1,003.66 in August 2021, this card is now worth around $45 (that’s a 95% loss).
Again, bubble hype, a high pop report, and injuries have all contributed to this decline. But through all the doom and gloom, you’ll find that the youngest of the Ball brothers is still a generational talent with a Magic-like feel for the game who just signed a 5-year, $260 million contract at only 21 years of age.
No one can predict LaMelo’s career trajectory, but barring major injury, I’m expecting him to make some waves in the not-so-distant future.
Shop LaMelo Ball rookie cards on eBay here
Luka Doncic
Rounding out our list of hobby darlings is none other than Luka Doncic. Despite coming off a career year in scoring (32.4 ppg), the Slovenian superstar’s rookie cards have also been experiencing a steady decline in value since the boom, with his Prizm PSA 10 coming down from $1,372 to around $250.
This may be in part due to the fact that, despite continuing to dazzle at an individual level, Luka has yet to achieve anything substantive with the middling Mavericks.
But don’t let that take away from the fact that Luka is still only 24 years old and entering his sixth season in the league (LeBron didn’t win his first chip until his ninth season). When you then consider that he’s had no history of major injury, has gotten better almost linearly on a season-by-season basis thus far in his career, and is now paired up with one of the most talented guards of all time in Kyrie Irving, it’s hard not to bet on Luka Doncic.
Shop Luka Doncic rookie cards on eBay here
Anthony Edwards
Two years on from losing out on Rookie of the Year to LaMelo Ball, it’s very arguable that 2020’s #1 overall pick has actually had the better career so far.
While throwing down some of the nastiest posters in recent memory, the hyper-athletic swingman has quietly improved statistically every year he’s been in the league, capping off a 25/6/4 junior season campaign with a playoff performance against the eventual champion Nuggets that had all the markings of a nascent superstar.
Now with a freshly inked 5-year, $260 million contract extension worthy of his talent, expect the Ant-Man to make another big jump next season.
Shop Anthony Edwards rookie cards on eBay here
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The Oklahoma City Thunder have arguably the best young core in the entire NBA led by arguably one of the most underrated guards in the entire NBA: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Fresh off a 31.4 ppg season that earned him his first All-Star appearance and a second-place Most Improved Player nod, everything seems in place for this Canadian star to take his game — and his fledgling team — to the next level. OKC just might be next up in the West; if and when they are, don’t be surprised to see SGA leading the charge.
Shop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rookie cards on eBay here
Damian Lillard
Even the most loyal of superstars have a limit when an organization is simply unable to put the right pieces next to them year after year. But while Portland’s front office’s incompetency is bad news for Trailblazers fans, it’s great news for Damian Lillard card speculators.
Dame Time wants to win, and he wants to win now. Wherever Lillard ends up next season (we still don’t know as of this writing), you can be sure that they will be in serious playoff contention — and that the 32-year-old sharpshooter might just be the final piece to get them over the top.
Shop Damian Lillard rookie cards on eBay here
Scottie Barnes
The Toronto Raptors have been in no man’s land since winning their first title in 2019, having given away almost all of their core championship pieces for pretty much nothing in return. Now with VanVleet gone and Siakam looking like the next to go, it would seem that Scottie Barnes has been given the keys to The Six.
While I don’t expect the Raptors to be good next year, I do expect Barnes to make a big jump in productivity. Now’s a good time to buy in before he does.
Shop Scottie Barnes rookie cards on eBay here
Tyrese Haliburton
Like the Raptors, it’s gonna be a while before the Indiana Pacers are ready to make a deep push in the playoffs. But when they are, I fully expect Tyrese Haliburton — as true of a pure point guard as we’ve seen in many a year — to be spearheading their efforts.
Shop Tyrese Haliburton rookie cards on eBay here
De’Aaron Fox
The Sacramento Kings were the surprise of 2022–23, breaking a 16 year playoff drought and taking the Warriors to 7 games in the first round.
Now with some experience under their belt, expect the Kings to be back with a vengeance next year behind the backs of Sabonis, Barnes, Murray and, of course, De’Aaron Fox.
Shop De’Aaron Fox rookie cards on eBay here
Bradley Beal
Just a couple years ago, Bradley Beal was a 30 ppg scorer on a bad Washington team.
Now, he’ll be the third option on a ridiculously stacked Phoenix team that’s all but guaranteed to make a deep playoff run next year. While he won’t be putting up 30 ppg, he will be a vital part of the Suns’ offense, especially with all the open looks he’ll get courtesy of the attention drawn by Durant and Booker.
Shop Bradley Beal rookie cards on eBay here
Honorable mentions
Alperen Sengun
The Rockets have been a mess since Harden’s departure, but Sengun has been one of their few bright spots. Displaying flashes of Jokic-like brilliance, it won’t be long until this Turkish big man starts making some waves.
Shop Alperen Sengun rookie cards on eBay here
Yuta Watanabe
Yuta Watanabe isn’t quite on the level as the other players on this list, but he is in a perfect situation for his talents to shine and his value to rise.
One of the league’s best 3-point shooters last year, the Japanese native will be reunited with former teammate Kevin Durant in Phoenix, where he’ll be given plenty of open looks with all the defensive attention drawn by their Big 3. When the Suns make a deep playoff push, keep an eye out for breakout games (a la Christian Braun in the 2022 finals) from Yuta tha shoota, and the corresponding value spike.
Shop Yuta Watanabe rookie cards on eBay here
Jeremy Sochan
Though a very promising player in his own right, Jeremy Sochan makes this list by virtue of being teammates with Victor Wembanyama. If Wembymania pans out, expect his hype to have carryover effects to some of his best teammates.
Featured image ("Luka Doncic (51177079284)" by Erik Drost) is licensed under CC BY 2.0. No changes were made.
Flipping Pokemon cards can be a fun way to understand the market, earn some extra cash and roll up your investment. Here are 10 things I’ve learned flipping Pokemon cards on eBay that might help you out on your own flipping journey.